Friday, August 11, 2006
Method of Science - Notes of Power Point Presentation 12 08 2006
Method of Science
A Lecture for EDOC – Science Communication Students
Senthivel Arulselvan
Lecturer
Department of Communication
M S University Tirunelveli
12 Aug 2006
Stage #1:CURIOUS OBSERVATION
Curious observation is the start of the inductive process. Discovery of new problems, ideas, theories, decisions needed, and problem prevention usually begin with curious observation using the five senses: smelling, tasting, hearing, feeling, seeing. Instruments and tools can be used to help extend these senses. Use your sense perceptions and projections visually and mentally. Turn thoughts over and over in your mind. Use reasoning, your imagination, and introspection. Being in the right mood, motivated, and sensitive helps! Train your mind to interpret what you see.
Deductive arguments
A deductive argument usually (but not always) argues from "the general" to "the particular".
For example:
P1. All hackers are people who know computers.
P2. All people who know computers are born after 1840.
C. All hackers are born after 1840.
If the two premises are true, then it is impossible for the conclusion to be false.
You see that in a deductive argument, all the information in the conclusion is contained in the premises.
Inductive arguments
An inductive argument usually (but not always) argues from "the particular" to "the general".
For example:
P1. The vast majority of hackers eat a lot of pizza.
P2. Otto is a hacker.
C. Otto eats a lot of pizza.
If the two premises are true, then it is probable that the conclusion is true. But it might not be.
This is an example of an inductive argument that proceeds from the general to the particular (which is not the way an inductive argument usually proceeds):
P. Every day so far the sun has risen.
C. Therefore, the sun will rise tomorrow.
Given that the premise is true (and it is), then it is highly probable that the conclusion is true. But it might not be. The sun might go extinct, or a huge meteor may crash into the sun and push it away from the Earth. Hence, it is an inductive argument.
Develop the Attribute of Curiosity
Constantly observe! - Ask questions: What, Why, Which, Where, When, Who, How, and If. Visualize what might be. Accept nothing as "fact."
Be an innovator! - Cultivate curiosity to find and develop new ideas.
Read, skip, and skim publications for data, ideas, and triggers for ideas.
Having found something, continue on now and define the problem.
If necessary, gather more information before trying to define the problem.
And never forget, any solutions you derive, no matter how good, should always be considered tentative!
Stage #2:
IS THERE A PROBLEM ?
An idea, problem, decision or tentative theory should be presented in the form of a question because:
It encourages you to keep an open mind, and thus seek the "truth" and not to prove a statement
A question is a tool and a guide for productive thinking about problem solving and investigation of a new subject.
Look at Problems as Challenges and Opportunities
Develop a passion to solve! Define the problem carefully so you know what direction to take:
It prevents you from wasting time and may indicate whether it is solvable.
A wide enough (but not too wide) definition allows for alternate solutions.
"A problem properly defined is often half-solved."
Things to Help You Define and Understand
the Problem Properly
Consider purpose, goals, criteria, and significance.
Ask What?, Why?, Which?, Where?, When?, Who?, How?, If?
Know the domains in which the problem falls.
If you don't know enough about the subject, you may have to loop ahead to Ingredient #4 and search for information to help define the problem.
If problem was assigned to you, review its origin. Read and reread it.
Define the problem's deep (or basic) structure. Juggle the elements.
End with a question that is brief, clear, purposeful, and thought-provoking.
Plan to revise the definition as your research proceeds. Again, read and reread it!
These Basic Principles Still Hold in Problem Solving
Réné Déscartes in A Discourse on Méthod (1637) advised:
Never accept anything for true which you do not clearly know to be such.
Divide each difficulty into as many parts as possible for it's adequate solution.
Commence with the simplest and easiest to know.
Do a complete review so nothing is omitted.
What Are the Sciences Today?
This Is a Problem that Needs Defining
A good example of a need to define is determining "What is a science?"
Years ago when the sciences were referred to, it was understood that people were referring to the domains in the natural sciences such as physics, chemistry, astronomy, geology, and biology.
Nowadays, you read about social sciences, engineering sciences, decision sciences, management sciences, and others. Because we are now learning in all domains more intensively and at a faster pace, the 21st century will produce other areas developing into "sciences." The natural sciences have led the way and set the standards.
To really be a "science" there must be:
A group of practitioners in a domain or sub-domain with relevant professional organizations and publications and following the scientific method in theri research and when peer reviewing.
At the action stage, peer review for their research. The phenomenal results of scientists in the natural sciences had been greatly aided by their peer reviewed publication system. Articles basied on use of the scientific method ae first screened for accuracy by reviewers. After correction and final approval, articles are published for gellow practitioners to challenge, test, approve, use, etc.
As a group, an attempt must be made to buld up a reliable organized body of knowledge in their area of specialization.
Stage #3 :
GOALS & PLANNING
GOALS - End results you want to achieve
in solving a problem
Goals must be realistic, flexible, and subject to change.
Put goals in writing. This helps analyze priorities and avoid carelessness.
Consider methods, processes, technologies, systems, strategies, and formulas needed.
Set target dates for stages and completion.
Learn to process information efficiently.
Problem-based Learning -
Great Goal, But Poor Planning
There is a growing movement to tech law, medicine, engineering, business and other subjects by Problem-based Learning. In many instances those sponsoring this type of learning fail to:
Include any formula for the stages and ingreidients of the scientific method, which is the master method of problem solving.
Or use inadequate formulas - such as offering one that is too short.
This situation is an example of the excellent goal of teaching problem solving, but poor planning and analysis of what is needed to accomplish the goal.
If you do not teach any formula when using problem-based learning programs, you fail to a great extent getting transfer of learning. Centuries of us of the scientific method have shown there are basic stages to reliable problem solving.
Stage #4 :
SEARCH, EXPLORE, & GATHER THE EVIDENCE
The Internet Facilitates Gathering the Evidence
The Internet has caused a boom in the availability of data, information, and knowledge and has already changed out lives in many ways and will continue to do so. Remember that computers and the "Web" resulted from scientists and technologists following the scientific method.
Users of the internet are going to have to know how to use the scientific method for these reasons:
The flood of available data, information and knowledge frequently requires evaluation of its relaibility - the method to verify reliable knowledge is the scientific method.
It is the method of change - therefore will be needed more than ever.
The method of applying all this knowledge is again the scientific method.
For the sake of your reputation adnt eh good or society, knowledge you pput on your web site should have the reliability of ahving been gained by the scientific method.
Improvements to computers, the web, software, etc., will require the use of the method of invention - that is the scientific method.
Stage #5
GENERATE CREATIVE & LOGICAL ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS
Logical Solutions (or Trial and Error)
You can solve many problems the same way many great discoveries have been made - by trial and error or by using gradual, systematic, steady, analytical, and judicial reasoning and logic.
You gather the data and fit it together. What was a puzzle falls into a logical order.Aha! You now have a discovery or solution to your problem. Most importantly, however, problems are solved by the leap of the imagination, as often the solutions are infinite.
Innovative Solutions
Search out other people's ideas. Use as they are or adapt for your particular problem by combining reflective thinking and your creative abilities.
Creative Solutions / Use of Imagination
Creativity is usually described as taking two existing ideas and combining them into a new and better idea. It may also be termed: divergent thinking lateral thinking generative thinking productive thinking flash of inspiration innovation ideation insightintuition guided design
Successful people have also found imaginative thinking helpful in deciding what ideas or directions not to use or consider in detail.
Following are what I consider to be the most important methods:
Reflective Thinking Search; explore; follow leads; gather pertinent data, information, basic principles, concepts; and use reflective thinking.
You can also use rest-illumination or rest-insight. Load your mind with subject data, rest, then start thinking about your problem again in a relaxed manner. Triggers Things that stimulate your mind's store of stocked memories and cause recall and new train of thought.
It is best to load your mind with data pertinent to your current problem. It is the prepared or loaded mind that can best be triggered. At that point, you then: Experiment or Visualize Brainstorm Have discussions Pick minds Browse through a store Attend conferences and exhibits Search your files Use a computer idea program
While you are doing all these things, you are reflecting on your problem as you acquire more information.
Then,
This may be a small or very big idea.
Logic & Creativity vs. Exercise Problems
Exercise problems, textbook problems, puzzle problems, and game proglems are used extensively in schoolwork and in tests. while usually referred to as "problems," they really should be called what they are - oneof the above names. Schools are teaching the methods, techniques, formulas, strategies, and domain-specific information needed to slove them.
While they serve a useful purpose, they are not sufficient preparation for the everyday, real-world problems that we must face.
Real World Problem Solving & Decision Making
These require more real world logical reasoning and the sue of creative thinking and methods. The teaching of these in our schools needs to be increased.
Paul D. Hurd, in an article in AAAS's book, Scientific Literacy (1989), reports that since 1983 over 300 reports on the condition of education in the United States have been issued. He states:
Consensus also exists among the reports' goal for science education. The goals ae to develop the abilities to solve problems encountered in the workplace and in the conduct of personal life and civic responsibility ...
Stage #6 :
EVALUATE the EVIDENCE
By now you should have a list of tentative solutions that are candidates for your educated guess or hypothesis.
This is also the stage for experimenting and testing. The final choice is often called your working hypothesis and will be your Stage #7.
Starting guides to consider before working on each ingredient:
Problem: Should it be redefined or reframed?
Goals and planning: Any changes? Any new leads or clues? Planning ahead?
Goal-referencing approach: Where you started, are at now, and still need to go.
Looking back: Have you been using the right attributes, methods, strategies, technologies, plus curious observation? Have you consulted your advisor? Have you had a team meeting? Are you keeping your log up-to-date? Being on the right path is important!
Are you using innovation, creativity, watching for surprises? Are you alert to clues and leads?
Are you putting thoughts and ideas into writing? Using all available resources?
Evaluating Your Tentative Hypotheses
If data on any of these hypotheses is insufficient, gather additional information.
Check against any list of criteria, formulas, and routines you have established.
It may be helpful to read the information on Ingredient #7 to familiarize yourself with the characteristics and traits your working hypothesis must have.
Also, read Stage #8 to alert you as to how it will have to be challenged. .
Tests, Experiments, Strategies, Techniques
& Other Methods of Evaluating
Tests, Experiments, Strategies, Techniques
& Other Methods of Evaluating
Stage #7: MAKE THE EDUCATED GUESS (HYPOTHESIS)
Review the starting guides at the beginning of Stage #6. Your educated guess, technically The Hypothesis, is a proposed solution to the most recent definition of your problem. It is your choice of the most-likely-to-be-successful solution from the list of contending ones which you have evaluated.
Terminology, Definitions, and Descriptions
The hypothesis is often called "the educated guess," because scientists have long recognized the difficulty of arriving at the real "truth."
Working hypothesis" is a term used to describe this proposed solution. It is only a "candidate for truth," as it must always be challenged under Stage #8.
A hypothesis would be a theory of nature in scientific fields. In other fields, it could be a decision, plan, diagnosed illness, idea, design, invention, etc.
More than one hypothesis (hypotheses) - you might propose more than one solution. Problems in the social sciences often require several hypotheses.
A perfect solution is seldom obtained in solving complex problems.
Inductive reasoning has helped you to reach your hypothesis. (See Stage #14)
Valuable even if proven false - a hypothesis may often bewrong but may eventually lead to a discovery, a new field to explore, or a modification of the hypothesis.
Characteristics or Traits of a Hypothesis
These are desirable but not always essential or possible:
Relevant and adequate
Adds to existing knowledge
Verifiable or falsifiable
Predict consequences
Logically possible
In simplest terms possible
Conducive to further inquiry
Answers defined problem
Consistent with existing knowledge
Predict Consequences
Now that you have chosen a hypothesis, you must make predictions of why and how something will occur, based on the accuracy of your hypothesis. Testing these predictions helps you challenge, verify, justify, or falsify your hypothesis in Stage #8. Then others can do so after you take action at Stage #11.
Types of Consequences and Predictions
If change is made, consequences will be . . .
If experiment is made, it will show . . .
If reasoned out, results will be . . .
If cost and benefits are computed, they will show . . .
If survey or interview is conducted, it will show . . .
If mathematical computation is made using certain data, it will show . . .
If a model is made, this will happen . . .
If a computer simulation is programmed, it will show . . .
Stage #8 : CHALLENGE THE HYPOTHESIS
Review the Starting Guides Listed
at the Beginning of Stage #6.
The degree of challenge to your hypothesis will depend on the type of problem and its importance. It can range from just seeking "a good enough " solution (but not a haphazard or lazy one) to the much more rigorous challenge
To accommodate a broad range, Dr. Crooks used the term "Challenge." Most of the old formulas for "The Scientific Method" use the terms verification, justification, refutability, validity, rectification, falsification, testing the theories, test prediction, experimentation to test, look back, and many similar terms, indicating that the hypothesis should be challenged.
Experimenting, Testing, & Challenging the Hypothesis
Falsification: Sir Karl Popper advocates trying to prove a hypothesis to be false rather than trying to prove it right. This may save time and avoid bias.
Verification: Many disagree with his falsification theory and believe various methods should be used to verify the hypothesis.
Who Is Right?: This is an extremely controversial and difficult question to answer. Try both approaches mentioned above. Gather evidence both for and against your hypothesis.
Predictions: Use to challenge your hypothesis. Under Ingredient #7, you made certain predictions that resulted from your hypothesis. The way to challenge your hypothesis is to try to prove these false, probably true, or supported.
Modify Your Hypothesis: In testing your predictions, if you find something wrong, backtrack to Stage #7, modify your hypothesis, and change your predictions. If it fails completely, backtrack to Stage #4 or #5. We learn from failures.
Control Variables: Vary one thing at a time - make notes on each.
Repeatability of Your Tests & Experiments:
For your hypothesis to be accepted by others, your testing results must be able to be repeated by you and those who will want to verify your theory.
Log all tests Results must fit known "facts"
Be accurate Report unknowns
Review data Control stress
Results must be
consistent Try for simplicity
Get advice Use sampling
Use statistical
verification Use math
Experiments must be complete enough
Stage #9 : REACH A CONCLUSION
Begin by reviewing the starting guides listed at the beginning of Stage #6. You have challenged your working hypothesis. Now comes the conclusion.
If your hypothesis is partially wrong, you backtrack, modify, and then challenge again. If completely wrong, you backtrack and take another path.
We learn from our failures. Do not become discouraged! Even great men and women are frequently wrong. If your hypothesis passes the important tests - you have reached your conclusion!
Your Conclusion Should Be (Among Other Things):
broad enough to fit all acceptable data;
limited enough to meet special exceptions;
consistent when tested by you (and others) again and again;
seldom extended beyond the evidence;
suitable to base a report on, if one is scheduled; and
an answer to the problem, as you have finally defined it.
Take a Good "Look Back" to
Re-evaluate Your Investigation.
Gathered all the evidence?
Ethical considerations?
Experiments properly performed?
Is the overall accuracy good?
No fraud by teammates?
No bias has crept in?
Variables properly controlled?
No wrong assumptions?
Any other possible goofs or errors?
Anything overlooked?
All consequences considered?
Feedback?
Any conceptual blocks??
Environment considered?
In the 1993 Supreme Court decision, Daubert v Merrill Dow Pharmaceuticals Inc., the court reviewed the definitions of scientific evidence, scientific knowledge, scientific validity and good science. As part of this case, the American Medical Association, et al, filed an Amicus brief in support of the respondent and stated: "Scientific Knowledge" within the meaning of Rule 702 is knowledge derived from the application of the scientific method. As part of its decision, the Supreme Court declared: But in order to qualify as "scientific knowledge" an inference or assertion must be derived by the scientific method. Proposed testimony must be supported by appropriate validation - i.e., "good grounds," based on what is known. Therefore, the official position of the
Stage #10 : SUSPEND JUDGMENT
The investigator must stick to his conclusion until it is proved wrong, but he must keep an open mind and be ready to accept new evidence or speculations if sufficiently convincing. He is therefore ready to adjust his own views if they are untenable.
This is the crux of the scientific attitude: an abiding faith in some view or opinion allied to a healthy skepticism; a questioning challenging doubt of new ideas; but a mind definitely open to new ideas.
This sounds conflicting, but it is not. The true scientist or the citizen with a scientific attitude is no bigoted stand-patter, but he is no wishy-washy turn-coat either; he does not go chasing after strange idols just because they are new, nor does he condemn another idea just because it is old.
He realizes that truth is not simple, that knowledge is forever growing, and that opinions thought correct today in the light of present knowledge may be thought incorrect tomorrow because of new discoveries or the projection of new ideas.
IMPORTANT!
There can be great flexibility in the order in which SM-14 ingredients are utilized. Ingredients are numbered and in their usual order of use.
Utilizing the ingredients in solving a problem, you may often:
1. Skip ahead
2. Backtrack
3. Stall 4. Loop ahead or back
5. Combine two or more ingredients
6. Use various combinations
Never refer to the ingredients assteps or rules! However, in many of the methods used under the ingredients, there may be steps or rules to follow.
Stage #11:TAKE ACTION
Prepare For Action!
This is often called the "gaining acceptance" stage.
Review your plans and goals. Have the courage to act now.
Innovation and creativity can help immensely. Read how to present, sell, and gain acceptance of your concluding hypothesis. Get other opinions.
Give proper credit to your team, reference sources, and associates.
Report the social and ecological effects of your hypothesis.
Look ahead, mention possibilities that others may not see.
The Action You Take Depends
on the Nature of Your Investigation
Scientific thoery, process, discovery - You will usually prepare a report using the IMRAD format of Introduction, Method, Results, and Discussion . This can be submitted to a scientific journal for peer review and possible publication.
Invention, technological design, new product idea - Do any of the above; make a model, apply for a patent, do market research, make an effort to gain acceptance, and sell or merchandise the product.
Decision, plan, dispute, social science problem, geography or history research, the arts - Do any of the above. Implement a solution, if possible. Prevent future problems.
Recommendations - If submitted to authoritative body, wait for review. If modified, rejected, or partially accepted, you will have to coil back to one of the earlier ingredients and work ahead again.
New problems - Solving one problem often leads to new problems. Maybe you made some surprise discoveries or saw opportunities for research in new areas. Consider all consequences - make predictions. Offer clues and leads. Mention in your report.
Obstacles to acceptance - Many eventually highly successful hypotheses have had a very rough road to acceptance. Others have won immediate popularity. Thus, your action may have to include overcoming these obstacles that cause people to reject new things:
JealousyResistance to change
Organized skepticism
BiasLoss of prestige
Wrong assumptions
Financial lossNot enough proof
Poor reasoningNo market
AuthoritarianismWon't admit wrong
Aids to Acceptance - All through your problem solving you must think of ways to gain acceptance. Review these and investigate any other ideas. Now develop and apply them.
ALWAYS THE INQUIRING MIND!
Ingredient #12: CREATIVE, NON-LOGICAL, LOGICAL & TECHNICAL METHODS
NOTE: By including these supporting ingredients, the SM-14 formula now (revised 1997), reflects the whole system of science and the system of the complete method of creative problem solving and decision making.
For teaching students and for general understanding of the scientific method we need to properly identify the working, action, effective and applied methods that produce actual results.
These are used under the first eleven stages of SM-14. "Methods" as used here include such elements and auxiliry actions as:
ProcessesProceduresTacticsTechniquesApproaches Systems OperationsStrategiesProgramsCriteria
There are times when we must solve problems of necessity, for school, to satisfy parents, and for other special reasons. It can be fun and is a part of the essence of life!
Non-logical Methods
While it may not be "scientific" to use non-logical methods, nevertheless, in actual practice, scientists and all problem solvers are always using them.
Time is often the main reason these are used. Some non-logical methods used result from habits, emotions, trial and error, arbitrariness, haste, frustration, closed mindedness, experimentation, unreasoned opinions, risk taking, intuitive pure guess, etc.
Be alert to whether they affect your results favorably or unfavorably. Chance, accidental discovery, fortunate occurrences, unanticipated novelty, effective surprise, and serendipity probably are non-logical methods or ways.
Logical Methods (in the broadest sense)
Any method based on sound reasoning is classified here as logical. Some researchers may apply logical methods based on accepted rules of reasoning standardized by logicians.
Usually, though, people use "semi-intuitive" logic resulting from their base of experiences, thinking skills, and knowledge. Examples of well-known logical methods based on reasoning and experience are methods of:
controlled variations
pattern identification
trial and error
Falsification
reviewing the literature
artificial intelligence
Classificationsurveying
Technical Methods
No standard exists to determine what methods to term "technical." A method involving measuring, mathematics, use of tools, instruments, and apparatus ca be termed "technical."
Since most others are general methods usend in all fields and for all types of problems, some authors point out that these technical methods are really only ones that can accurately be called methods of science or scientific methods.
Ingredient #13: PROCEDURAL PRINCIPLES AND THEORIES
Since Galileo's time, various basic principles, guides, objectives, and thoughts about "the scientific method" and its use have been discussed and debated. There are no established standards concerning these procedural principles and theories.
Controversy exists about some, if not all, of them. Because these do not always apply to every circumstance, they must be considered and applied with an open mind as you pursue complete creative problem solvingThe Organized Sciences
The organized sciences have their peer review systems, professional organizations, customs, consensus of opinion, ethical standards (I recommend NAS's responsible Science: Ensuring the Integrity of the Research Process, Vol. I & II, 1993), and constant debates about theories, methods, what is the structure of science, and what is our "organized body of knowledge." Look first to them for leadership in procedural principles and theories, as they have been mainly responsible for these. A few major ones are listed below.
The Objective of The Scientific Method The basic purpose is to refine, extend, and apply knowledge, and to seek the "truth," although the "truth" can probably never be determined. Results must always be held open to extension, modification, even possible replacement.
Experimentation - Testing and experimentation, whether on a blackboard or computer, or in the lab, are usually essential activities in the use of "The Scientific Method." Government standards must be observed in experiments involving people, animals, and the environment.
Replicable - Results must be reproducible, communicable, and communicated.
A Skeptical Attitude - A Skeptical Attitude toward authoritative statements is required in seeking the truth. Data used in your thinking must be "true" insofar as it is possible to determine "truth." It may be useful to determine key terminology.
Values and Ethics - As much as humanly possible, a researcher should strive to be free of prejudice and bias that often creep into human judgment and action. They must give due credit to his team or collaborators.
Infallibility - No claims should be made that "The Scientific Method" produces infallible solutions. State rather: "On the evidence available today, the balance of probability favors the view that ..." Gather All Evidence - If bias or inadequate effort causes you to ignore or fail to find contrary evidence, you will not arrive at the "truth." Mathematics - Qualitative and quantitative methods of mathematics should be used whenever possible. Society - There is a growing interest in the concept that science is a social activity.
All Stages of The Scientific Method - EaHave various procedural principles and theories peculiar to them. See Stage 1 to 11.
Ingredient #14: ATTRIBUTES & THINKING SKILLS
The quality of human activity applied to the various stages and action methods involved in the scientific method determines the quality of results achieved. The fame of the scientific method results from the high degree of development of personal attributes and thinking skills that scientists have used in the scientific method.
There is some overlap between attributes and thinking skills. Scientists are human and therefore not perfect, but their overall accomplishments have achieved phenomenal benefits for society. The use of their method spread to all domains.
A definition of personal attributes also includes character traits, aptitudes, skills, values, attitudes, etc. The number of desirable attributes mentioned in the problem-solving literature is great.
Those most frequently mentioned include:
Honesty
Flexible
Experimenter
Suspend Judgment
Sensitivity
Skeptical
Attitude
Open-Minded
Motivated
Communicator
Team Worker
Passion for Subject
Organized
Seek Truth
Curiosity
Emotional Stability
Creative
Courage
Knowledgeable
Logical Reasoner
There is no standard combination that is "best." Your success in life depends on developing desirable personal attributes and improving your undesirable ones.
